MBA Forecasts $805B in Commercial Real Estate Financing for 2026; HALL Structured Finance Highlights Multifamily Demand

The Mortgage Bankers Association is projecting a significant rebound in commercial real estate financing activity in 2026, forecasting total commercial and multifamily mortgage originations will reach approximately $805 billion — a 27% increase over the prior year. The projection was among the headline figures shared at the MBA's Commercial/Multifamily Finance Convention.

HALL Group, a Dallas-based private lender focused on construction and multifamily lending, published commentary on the conference findings, noting the data signals a more active lending environment ahead, particularly for multifamily real estate and construction financing.

CRE Origination Volume Is Expected to Rebound

According to the MBA's forecast, total commercial and multifamily mortgage originations are expected to climb to $805 billion in 2026, with multifamily lending alone projected to account for nearly $400 billion of that total. The figures represent a meaningful acceleration following a period of slowed transaction activity attributed to interest rate volatility and tighter credit conditions.

HALL Structured Finance noted that the forecast points to several emerging trends: borrowers re-engaging with new development and acquisition opportunities, rising deal flow across commercial and multifamily sectors, and stronger lender demand for construction and transitional financing products.

The firm characterized the MBA's projections as "an early sign that the lending environment is becoming more active, particularly in growth markets where housing demand remains strong."

Multifamily Real Estate Remains a Central Driver of Lending Demand

The MBA conference reinforced that multifamily real estate continues to represent one of the most active and resilient segments within commercial real estate financing. With nearly $400 billion in projected multifamily originations, the sector is expected to anchor overall CRE lending volume in 2026.

HALL Structured Finance, which focuses on construction and multifamily lending, pointed to long-term demographic demand and ongoing development needs as key factors sustaining multifamily's prominence. The firm acknowledged that challenges around affordability and supply persist but noted that the projected lending volume underscores continued lender and borrower interest in the asset class.

$875 Billion in Loan Maturities Set to Shape Commercial Real Estate Financing Activity

Beyond new originations, the MBA highlighted the scale of upcoming loan maturities as a defining factor for the CRE debt market. Approximately $875 billion in commercial mortgage balances are expected to mature in 2026, creating a substantial refinancing pipeline that lenders and borrowers will need to navigate.

HALL Structured Finance noted that many borrowers approaching refinance events will do so in an environment where interest rates remain elevated relative to the prior cycle and property valuations have adjusted. The firm indicated this dynamic will shape how lenders structure commercial real estate financing solutions throughout the year.

Dallas Market Context

As a Dallas-based lender, HALL Structured Finance views the MBA's data through the lens of conditions in growth markets, noting that housing demand remains strong in areas where it operates. The firm indicated it sees the conference findings as consistent with conditions it is observing locally.

The combination of rising origination forecasts, a large refinancing wave, and sustained multifamily real estate demand is expected to keep commercial real estate financing activity elevated through 2026, according to the MBA's projections and HALL Structured Finance's market commentary.