MCB Real Estate: Grocery-Anchored Retail Operating at 4% Vacancy, Below 6.3% for Non-Anchored Centers, ICSC OAC Data Shows

Grocery-anchored, open-air retail centers are currently operating at a 4% vacancy rate — well below the 6.3% vacancy recorded in non-anchored centers during Q1 2026 — according to market commentary published by MCB Real Estate following the ICSC Open Air Conference (OAC) held in Scottsdale, Arizona, in March 2026.

The commentary, authored by Daniel Taub, Senior Managing Partner and MCB Head of Retail, draws on insights gathered at the conference, where approximately 600 owners, brands, and capital partners convened to discuss the direction of open-air retail. The firm says the data reinforces its long-standing focus on grocery-anchored assets as a core component of its acquisition and development strategy.

Grocery-Anchored Retail Posts Stronger Metrics

According to MCB Real Estate, grocery-anchored assets command a 4.4% rent premium over non-anchored retail, driven by consistent foot traffic from value-oriented and fresh-format grocers such as Aldi and Trader Joe's. The firm notes that retailers are increasingly clustering their physical locations near daily-needs retail centers, viewing the store not only as a point of sale but also as a micro-fulfillment and service hub.

Macroeconomic Backdrop Shapes Acquisition Strategy

MCB Real Estate describes the current economic environment as a "slow-normalization phase," citing national unemployment at 4.4% and Consumer Price Index inflation stabilizing at an annualized rate of 2.5%. The firm says the Federal Reserve has signaled a commitment to gradual easing, and that it is underwriting current acquisitions and redevelopments under an assumption of higher-for-longer rate stability.

In this environment, the firm states that operational execution and fundamental property operations have replaced financial engineering as the primary drivers of value creation. MCB Real Estate says it is employing Tax Increment Financing proposals and capital recycling strategies to capitalize on prevailing macro conditions.

Capital Activity and Absorption

The firm reports that net absorption in the open-air retail sector is projected at 3.8 million square feet per quarter through 2026, with demand for necessity-based retail continuing to outpace available supply. MCB Real Estate characterizes the current investment landscape as a period of renewed institutional engagement, with capital allocation decisions shifting toward asset quality rather than market timing.

The firm identifies three strategic pillars emerging from the ICSC OAC 2026 conference: prioritizing assets with durable cash flows and strong anchor tenants; deliberately scaling grocery-anchored and service-oriented platforms to capture market share; and developing smaller, subdividable formats to accommodate the evolving footprint requirements of modern retailers.

Open-Air Sector Outlook

MCB Real Estate says it is accelerating its expansion into key markets, citing what it describes as a "redevelopment renaissance" occurring across the open-air retail space. The firm's commentary positions grocery-anchored retail as a beneficiary of constrained supply and disciplined capital deployment heading into the remainder of 2026.

The ICSC Open Air Conference drew approximately 600 attendees from across the retail real estate industry, according to MCB Real Estate's account of the event. The firm's full commentary is available on its website.

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Sources: MCB Real Estate — Navigating a Meteoric Shift in Open-Air Retail (March 27, 2026)